# Runway — lesson

Gym heading: Sizing the order. Written before the code (Sep 7 2026). The teach screen shows this text; the answer key implements the rule in it and nothing else. Distances are in M everywhere. Harness, confidence, persistence, and reveal format follow stop-vs-noise.

Persistent header: **"Training your eye for the room between the entry and the next thing heavy."**

## Before you aim

- **Room** — how far price can go from the entry before it hits something heavy, measured in M. It is measured, not felt: the distance from the entry to the next obstacle in the trade's direction. Nothing about the direction has to be true for the number to be right.
- **The level map** — the grey lines on the chart. Each is a level: a price the market has already reacted to more than once. Where it came from (a prior high or low, a shelf where price spent time, a session extreme) isn't the question here; that it's there is. The nearest level on the target's side of the entry is the **next obstacle**. Levels behind the entry are the stop's problem, not the target's.
- **The target** — a distance from the entry, measured in M. Points mean nothing: 20 points is a fifth of the room one night and twice the room the next.
- **The rule** — a target has runway when it sits **inside the first half of the room**: its distance from the entry is at most **f × the distance to the next obstacle**, with f = 0.5. A target past the obstacle has no runway at all: something is between here and there. A target in the far half needs the full fill, and the crowd in front of the level gets paid before you do.
- **Why it matters at the trade** — the room is a veto, never a target-setter. It says when a target is too far; it never says where to put one. A stop that survives the noise and a target with no runway is a trade with a real exit against you and a wished-for exit in your favor. The trade doesn't exist at that target.
- **What it doesn't say** — runway is not a forecast. It says nothing about direction, nothing about whether the obstacle is a magnet or a wall (Magnet or wall, a different module), nothing about how fast the room gets crossed (Thick vs thin), and nothing about the stop (Stop vs noise).
- **M** — the median high-to-low range of the last 20 bars. Every distance here is in M. The number for the current chart is on the screen.
- **Confidence is a number** — Low means 40%, Medium 65%, High 90% that your call is right. Scored Brier-style: sure and wrong costs 0.81, unsure and wrong costs 0.16, sure and right costs 0.01. Being certain is as expensive as being wrong.

## The read

Two distances, both in M: from the entry to the next obstacle on the target's side (the room), and from the entry to the target. Then the question: is the target inside the first half of the room?

## The rep

A chart with a proposed entry at the last close, a target drawn on it, and the level map. M is stated. The question, in full: **"Long (or short) from the last close, target at the green line. Does this target have runway?"** Yes or No, with a confidence.

## The reveal

The room in M and which level is the obstacle, half the room in M, the target's distance in M and where it sits, the verdict, and one takeaway line. Templates:

- Runway: **"{target} M target in {room} M of room — inside the first half; the room is there."**
- No runway, past the obstacle: **"{target} M target past the level at {room} M — something is between here and there."**
- No runway, far half: **"{target} M target in {room} M of room — the far half needs the full fill; the crowd in front of the level gets paid first."**

Every rep ends on one of these three lines. Each is a decision: this target stands as drawn, or it comes in, or the trade doesn't exist at that target.

## Answer key

`hasRunway = (targetDistance <= f × room)`, room = the distance from the entry to the nearest level on the target's side of the entry; f = 0.5. Levels behind the entry are ignored. About half the reps have runway (config). Some targets sit within a few percent of the halfway line, or just past the obstacle, on purpose; the reveal shows the numbers either way.